READ THE ORIGINAL
Published in full and free by Oaktree Capital Management. This page indexes its arguments; it is not a copy.
THE ARGUMENT
Marks treats AI as a real technology shift whose pace is more likely underestimated than overestimated, and separates that judgment from the question of what its securities are worth. The recommendation is a moderate, selective position rather than all-in or all-out.
What it actually claims
Adoption reached a scale in two years that most technologies need a decade for.
- roughly 400 million individual users
- 75-80% of companies, as of February 2026
He tracks capability by year to argue the rate of change itself is the thing being mispriced.
- unable to do basic arithmetic in 2022
- passing the bar exam in 2023
- writing working software in 2024
- completing tasks autonomously by 2026
He cites recursive self-improvement as having arrived in a shipped product.
- GPT-5.3-Codex described by OpenAI as instrumental in creating itself
He points to physical-world deployment as evidence this is not confined to demos.
- Waymo handles roughly one-fifth of San Francisco taxi trips
He frames the economic transfer in terms of labor value migrating to compute.
- $150-250 billion in annual labor value migrating to AI compute, in software alone
Figures are the author's own, as cited in the memo.